Four fundamental structural shifts – Russian aggression, the rise of China, an unpredictable US and European political instability – have coalesced to create the most acute security crisis in Europe since 1945.
In the near future, credible conventional and nuclear deterrence must be the overarching priority to provide Europe with the time and space to rearm and build a resilient Euro-Atlantic security architecture, according to Ed Arnold and Darya Dolzikova in their report entitled “The Future of the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture”.
The authors write that Europe is facing its most acute security crisis since 1945 and that the post-war Euro-Atlantic security architecture (EASA) – which they describe as a “complex system of institutions, treaties, norms and alliances.” The report further clarifies: “The Euro-Atlantic security architecture is under the greatest external and internal pressure since its inception. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine [2022] was a violent attempt to overthrow and replace [the EASA]. The stasis of liberalism and the rise of populism within Europe and the US are creating unprecedented and simultaneous internal political instability, fraying Western unity and multilateral collective action.”
The report also warns: “US leadership that upholds the EASA is no longer assured as the second President Donald Trump administration dramatically realigns towards domestic priorities and the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific. While the US is not expected to decrease its nuclear commitments to Europe, that the US will undertake a conventional drawdown on the continent will have ‘knock-on effects’ on the credibility of US extended nuclear deterrence on the continent. A withdrawal of – or unwillingness to engage in – conventional capabilities in defence of Europe will create destabilising gaps in Europe’s escalatory options.”
Europe’s sovereignty is in question. The report says political instability is forcing European governments to focus on domestic challenges: “The rise of populism is straining unity and making it harder to manage multilateral security institutions. An increase in ‘spoiler countries’, such as Hungary, which can exploit the requirement of unanimity in both the EU and NATO to their advantage, is preventing strong collective multilateral action. Moreover, domestic political concerns, principally over immigration, are driving a distrust of international organisations and agreements, such as the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which constitutes a central part of the current values-based EASA. Reform – the party is currently leading the polls in the United Kingdom [UK] – and the Conservative Party are both campaigning to withdraw from the ECHR. If the UK voluntarily left the Council of Europe, it would be outside the organisation, alongside Russia and Belarus who were expelled, and this would impact the values-based nature of the agreement.”
The authors underline that strengthening NATO quickly is essential if Europeans are to “save NATO and continue to enjoy its protections”. It urges European allies to take greater ownership of NATO’s regional defence plans, prepare for scenarios in which the US is distracted or engaged elsewhere, and close key capability gaps. The report notes that the UK has a unique role to play in reforming current structures.
The report identifies four structural shifts: the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and sustained Russian aggression; advancements in China’s nuclear capabilities; growing US unpredictability; and deepening political instability and the growth of populism within Europe itself. The report says Russia’s repeated nuclear threats and the disintegration of arms control agreements have also raised escalation risks across Europe. The research noted that while US nuclear commitments to Europe are expected to remain, conventional forces drawdown – particularly as the United States increasingly prioritises the Indo-Pacific – risks undermining the credibility of this extended nuclear deterrence. The report considers how UK and French nuclear capabilities can be better integrated with efforts to strengthen European conventional capabilities to bolster European defence and deterrence.
Photo: NATO
Ed Arnold and Darya Dolzikova provide the following recommendations:
_Strengthen NATO to function with reduced US leadership: “For Europeans to save NATO and continue to enjoy its protections, it must be strengthened quickly European states must ensure that they can optimally operate within NATO even if the US is engaged elsewhere.”
_Prioritise credible deterrence to buy time for long-term reform: “In the near future, credible conventional and nuclear deterrence must be the overarching priority to provide Europe with the time and space to rearm and build a resilient EASA. The bolstering of European advanced conventional capabilities is the most immediate way of addressing concerns over the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear deterrence.”
_Consolidate minilateral security arrangements in Europe that complement NATO: “Bringing the E3 (UK, France and Germany) together with the “Weimar Triangle” (France, Germany and Poland) would develop the strongest European quad of powers, providing a strong leadership group and bridging NATO and the EU. Identifying opportunities for cooperation and coordination outside existing structures is particularly important for nuclear deterrence and assurance.”
The authors summarise that without decisive European leadership, the continent risks strategic irrelevance at a moment when credible deterrence – nuclear and conventional – is essential. Their expertise says the UK can play a critical leadership role in the new architecture given its nuclear capabilities, close relationship with the US, and central position within NATO. Europe must take greater responsibility for shaping its own defence and deterrence posture, yet without sustained political commitment and collective action, it risks falling behind strategically at a moment of profound global change.
Note: “The Future of the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture” is written by Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European security, and Darya Dolzikova, senior research fellow for proliferation and nuclear policy at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The research draws on expert-led meetings, semi-structured consultations with Euro-Atlantic policymakers and specialists, and extensive desk-based research of primary and secondary sources. The report forms part of RUSI’s Future Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture project, sponsored by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office’s Strategic Stability Programme.